Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 diciembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Dec 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 356 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Dec 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0149Z from Region 2242 (S17W71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24
Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 497 km/s at 22/1645Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 22/1657Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 22/0120Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3
pfu at 21/2120Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Dec) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Dec 179 Previsto 23 Dec-25 Dec 175/170/160 Media de 90 Días 22 Dec 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Dec 021/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 013/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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