Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 marzo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Mar 15 2305 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 74 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Mar 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0940Z from Region 2297 (S18W36). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
352 km/s at 15/0448Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/1727Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1426Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
15/0930Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (17 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (18 Mar). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(16 Mar), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Mar) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Mar 114 Previsto 16 Mar-18 Mar 115/112/110 Media de 90 Días 15 Mar 139
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/008-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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