Viendo archivo del domingo, 12 abril 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Apr 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 102 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Apr 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0950Z from Region 2321 (N13E54). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
11/2252Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1339Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/2116Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15
Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Apr 134 Previsto 13 Apr-15 Apr 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 12 Apr 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Apr 014/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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