Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 mayo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 May 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 May 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
09/0134Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at
09/0902Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0815Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1127Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (12 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 May a 12 May
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 May 155 Previsto 10 May-12 May 160/160/165 Media de 90 Días 09 May 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 May 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 May 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 006/005-009/012-017/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 May a 12 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 45% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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