Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 mayo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 May 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/1711Z from Region 2339 (N13E08). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May,
13 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
430 km/s at 10/0830Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/1749Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2000Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 May 160 Previsto 11 May-13 May 160/165/160 Media de 90 Días 10 May 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 May 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 May 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 009/012-017/025-019/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 60% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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