Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 junio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jun 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jun 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/0944Z from Region 2367 (S18W64). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
370 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/1853Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1912Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at
21/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1877 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (22 Jun), unsettled
to major storm levels on day two (23 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
day three (24 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(22 Jun), are expected to cross threshold on day two (23 Jun) and are
likely to cross threshold on day three (24 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jun a 24 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 90% | 70% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jun 136 Previsto 22 Jun-24 Jun 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 21 Jun 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jun 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 032/060-026/042-011/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jun a 24 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 40% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 25% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 85% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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