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Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jun 22 2220 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jun 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
22/1823Z from Region 2371 (N13W14). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 737 km/s at 22/1830Z. Total IMF reached 42 nT at 22/2000Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -39 nT at 22/1850Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066
pfu at 22/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet
to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24
Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jun a 25 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jun 135 Previsto 23 Jun-25 Jun 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 22 Jun 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jun 0NA/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jun 035/054 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 024/040-014/020-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jun a 25 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 70% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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