Viendo archivo del viernes, 26 junio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jun 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 177 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Jun 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0606Z from Region 2371 (N13W64). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Jun,
28 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (29 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
583 km/s at 26/0935Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2010Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0729Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at
26/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2395 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (27 Jun), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (29 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(27 Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Jun) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (29 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Jun a 29 Jun
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 30% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Protón | 95% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Jun 101 Previsto 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095 Media de 90 Días 26 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Jun 019/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Jun 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 024/045-035/060-016/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Jun a 29 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 79% | 79% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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