Viendo archivo del viernes, 10 julio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jul 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 191 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jul 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1613Z from Region 2385 (N07W53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
10/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/2054Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2748 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jul), unsettled
to active levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (13 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jul a 13 Jul
| Clase M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Jul 129 Previsto 11 Jul-13 Jul 125/120/120 Media de 90 Días 10 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 017/025-015/018-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jul a 13 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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