Viendo archivo del jueves, 9 julio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jul 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 190 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jul 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0337Z from Region 2381 (N14W11). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul,
11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 09/1636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1805Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1813Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1226 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jul), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (12 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jul 122 Previsto 10 Jul-12 Jul 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 09 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 009/012-017/025-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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