Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 213 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/2005Z from Region 2390 (S14W79). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
655 km/s at 01/0706Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0056Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1700Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Aug 103 Previsto 02 Aug-04 Aug 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 01 Aug 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 016/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 011/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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