Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 240 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
28/1316Z from Region 2403 (S15W69). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (29 Aug,
30 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (31 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 440 km/s at 28/1841Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 28/1801Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 28/1708Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 256
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Aug 109 Previsto 29 Aug-31 Aug 110/105/100 Media de 90 Días 28 Aug 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Aug 026/051 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Aug 033/048 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 019/025-010/012-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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