Viendo archivo del miércoles, 5 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 217 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug,
07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
460 km/s at 05/1445Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1939Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1206 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (08 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Aug 112 Previsto 06 Aug-08 Aug 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 05 Aug 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 008/010-018/023-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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