Viendo archivo del lunes, 5 octubre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Oct 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 278 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Oct 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07
Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 504 km/s at 05/0434Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/2139Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0458Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1899
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Oct) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(08 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Oct 083 Previsto 06 Oct-08 Oct 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 05 Oct 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 016/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 009/008-012/014-025/036
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 35% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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