Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 noviembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Nov 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 305 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Nov 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0027Z from Region 2443 (N07E29). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 01/0345Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0454Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0428Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (02 Nov), active to
major storm levels on day two (03 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (04 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Nov 124 Previsto 02 Nov-04 Nov 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 01 Nov 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Nov 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 036/065-033/050-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 30% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 85% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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