Viendo archivo del domingo, 22 noviembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Nov 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 326 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Nov 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/0538Z from Region 2454 (N13W53). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
22/0636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2140Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 195 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (25 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Nov 123 Previsto 23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115 Media de 90 Días 22 Nov 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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