Viendo archivo del sábado, 2 enero 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Jan 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 2 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0011Z from Region 2473 (S21W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (03 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
511 km/s at 02/1313Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0102Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21 pfu at
02/0450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4113 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (03 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (04 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (05 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (03 Jan) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (04 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| Clase M | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 90% | 30% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jan 100 Previsto 03 Jan-05 Jan 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 02 Jan 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 017/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 022/035-011/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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