Viendo archivo del martes, 27 septiembre 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Sep 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 271 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Sep 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0748Z from Region 2597 (S14W52). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep,
29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 27/2023Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 27/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6692 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (28
Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Sep 086 Previsto 28 Sep-30 Sep 085/085/080 Media de 90 Días 27 Sep 086
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/044 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 028/040-028/044-025/038
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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