Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 marzo 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Mar 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 70 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Mar 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 413 km/s at 11/0018Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1701 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (13 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Mar a 14 Mar
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Mar 078 Previsto 12 Mar-14 Mar 078/078/078 Media de 90 Días 11 Mar 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Mar 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Mar 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 011/012-015/020-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Mar a 14 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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