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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Apr 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 105 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Apr 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 15/0533Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 15/1242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 15/0533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Apr 072 Previsto 16 Apr-18 Apr 074/074/074 Media de 90 Días 15 Apr 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 014/018-015/020-015/016
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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