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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 116 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Apr 2021

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0230Z from Region 2816 (S22W79). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (29 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 26/1829Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 351 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Apr a 29 Apr
Clase M10%10%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Apr 080
  Previsto   27 Apr-29 Apr 080/078/078
  Media de 90 Días        26 Apr 076

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Apr  016/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  014/016
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Apr a 29 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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