Viendo archivo del miércoles, 22 septiembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Sep 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 265 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Sep 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 22/1157Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/2315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Sep a 25 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Sep 089 Previsto 23 Sep-25 Sep 090/095/095 Media de 90 Días 22 Sep 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Sep 011/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/012-007/008-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Sep a 25 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 29/12/2025 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 22/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
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