Viendo archivo del jueves, 23 septiembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Sep 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 266 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Sep 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Sep,
25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 23/1621Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1247 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(26 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Sep 090 Previsto 24 Sep-26 Sep 090/092/095 Media de 90 Días 23 Sep 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Sep 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 011/015-007/008-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 50% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/04/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 122.8 +36.9 |
| Last 30 days | 100.8 +44.4 |
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