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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 01/1838Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
01/0711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (04 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 091 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 017/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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