Viendo archivo del sábado, 2 octubre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (03 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 01/2143Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
02/0902Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 087 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 087/085/085 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 013/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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