Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 octubre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 282 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0638Z from Region 2882 (N17W01). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 416 km/s at 09/0938Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (11 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (12 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Oct 081 Previsto 10 Oct-12 Oct 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 09 Oct 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-016/025-017/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 70% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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