Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 octubre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 15/0526Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 430 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 084 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 082/080/080 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 083
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/008-006/005-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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