Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 septiembre 2021

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Sep 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Sep 2021

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18/0827Z from Region 2871 (S28E73). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 18/0408Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 17/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (19 Sep, 21 Sep) and quiet levels on day two (20 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Sep a 21 Sep
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Sep 074
  Previsto   19 Sep-21 Sep 076/076/076
  Media de 90 Días        18 Sep 082

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Sep  019/021
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Sep  010/011
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  006/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Sep a 21 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%10%20%
Tormenta Menor05%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%20%
Tormenta Menor30%20%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%20%25%

All times in UTC

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