Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 noviembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Nov 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0843Z from Region 2894 (S28W33). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 13/0312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/1851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1185 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (16 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Nov 081 Previsto 14 Nov-16 Nov 081/081/083 Media de 90 Días 13 Nov 087
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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