Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 noviembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 15/2100Z. Total IMF reached 22
nT at 15/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at
15/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2753 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and
quiet levels on day three (18 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Nov 079 Previsto 16 Nov-18 Nov 080/078/078 Media de 90 Días 15 Nov 087
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/012-012/012-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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