Viendo archivo del martes, 16 noviembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Nov 16 2220 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Nov 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 635 km/s at 16/1704Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 15/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
15/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Nov 080 Previsto 17 Nov-19 Nov 078/078/076 Media de 90 Días 16 Nov 087
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Nov 012/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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