Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 diciembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Dec 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 350 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Dec 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
16/1527Z from Region 2909 (S21E58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (17 Dec) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (18 Dec,
19 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 16/1123Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/0942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Dec a 19 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Dec 118 Previsto 17 Dec-19 Dec 118/118/118 Media de 90 Días 16 Dec 087
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Dec 008/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 009/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Dec a 19 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 29/12/2025 | M1.0 |
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