Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 diciembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Dec 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 354 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Dec 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1136Z from Region 2908 (S21W11). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (21 Dec) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (22 Dec,
23 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 20/1826Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 19/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 19/2317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Dec, 22 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Dec 123 Previsto 21 Dec-23 Dec 124/122/120 Media de 90 Días 20 Dec 089
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 013/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 012/016-010/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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