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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 13 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jan 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13/1142Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 13/1536Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jan a 16 Jan
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Jan 106
  Previsto   14 Jan-16 Jan 106/108/110
  Media de 90 Días        13 Jan 095

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/003
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-011/014-018/024

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jan a 16 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%40%40%
Tormenta Menor01%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%05%
Tormenta Menor20%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%65%70%

All times in UTC

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