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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 14 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jan 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0203Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 14/1517Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 14/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jan a 17 Jan
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Jan 110
  Previsto   15 Jan-17 Jan 110/110/108
  Media de 90 Días        14 Jan 095

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  014/018-015/020-010/012

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jan a 17 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%35%
Tormenta Menor30%30%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%05%10%
Tormenta Menor25%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa65%70%50%

All times in UTC

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