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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 20 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
20/0601Z from Region 2929 (N08W88). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (21 Jan) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 19/2117Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/0534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
20/0839Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22 pfu at 20/1015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2656 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21
Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jan 099 Previsto 21 Jan-23 Jan 095/093/091 Media de 90 Días 20 Jan 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 015/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 008/008-009/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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