Viendo archivo del viernes, 11 febrero 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Feb 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 42 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Feb 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1742Z from Region 2940 (N17W82). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb,
13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 11/2047Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 11/1736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 11/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6612 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (14 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Feb 113 Previsto 12 Feb-14 Feb 110/108/108 Media de 90 Días 11 Feb 102
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 012/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 013/015-007/010-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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