Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 febrero 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Feb 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 41 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Feb 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0438Z from Region 2941 (N24W15). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb,
12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 10/1429Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 10/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 10/1503Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 7543 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels
on day three (13 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Feb 118 Previsto 11 Feb-13 Feb 118/116/112 Media de 90 Días 10 Feb 102
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 016/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 016/020-010/012-017/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 25% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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