Viendo archivo del domingo, 13 marzo 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Mar 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 72 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Mar 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
13/0323Z from Region 2962 (N27W49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar,
16 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 13/1047Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 13/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (16 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Mar 123 Previsto 14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 13 Mar 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 020/034 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 020/030-015/020-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 80% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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