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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Mar 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 73 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Mar 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0840Z from Region 2965 (N24W03). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar,
17 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 13/2251Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 14/0643Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 13/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Mar 115 Previsto 15 Mar-17 Mar 116/114/116 Media de 90 Días 14 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 030/045 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 011/014-008/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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