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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 96 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Apr 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 06/1023Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (09 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 06/0040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3827 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Apr a 09 Apr
Clase M10%10%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Apr 117
  Previsto   07 Apr-09 Apr 116/115/112
  Media de 90 Días        06 Apr 113

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Apr  006/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  014/016
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  019/025-009/012-010/015

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Apr a 09 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%40%
Tormenta Menor30%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%15%10%
Tormenta Menor20%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa70%40%55%

All times in UTC

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