Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 julio 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jul 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 192 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jul 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/2343Z from Region 3056 (S15E65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 11/1033Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 11/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
11/1744Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (12 Jul, 14 Jul)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Jul). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul,
13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jul 161 Previsto 12 Jul-14 Jul 160/165/165 Media de 90 Días 11 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 013/015-020/028-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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