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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jul 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 193 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jul 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
12/0328Z from Region 3056 (S16E37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 12/1749Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 12/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 12/0652Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jul 165 Previsto 13 Jul-15 Jul 165/165/165 Media de 90 Días 12 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 017/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 020/024-011/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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