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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Aug 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/1654Z from Region 3078 (S24W05). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 510 km/s at 15/0127Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7575 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (17 Aug) and active to major storm levels on day three (18
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 131 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 006/005-016/022-025/038
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 70% | 85% |
All times in UTC
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