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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 245 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1716Z from Region 3089 (S23W46). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 512 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
02/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Sep 130 Previsto 03 Sep-05 Sep 124/124/120 Media de 90 Días 02 Sep 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 012/015-021/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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