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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
19/0230Z from Region 3102 (S26W13). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 18/2326Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 18/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 554 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (21 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 128 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 009/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 008/008-005/005-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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