Viendo archivo del viernes, 23 septiembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 266 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/1810Z from Region 3110 (N16E72). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 23/2032Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/0721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 372 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Sep 146 Previsto 24 Sep-26 Sep 146/142/148 Media de 90 Días 23 Sep 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 014/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 014/018-011/015-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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