Viendo archivo del martes, 27 septiembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 270 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0646Z from Region 3107 (S24W13). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (28 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Sep,
30 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 810 km/s at 27/1630Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 27/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 27/0925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1256 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on
day three (30 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Sep 135 Previsto 28 Sep-30 Sep 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 27 Sep 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 018/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 015/016-007/008-014/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 15% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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