Viendo archivo del miércoles, 28 septiembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 271 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0047Z from Region 3107 (S28W25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Sep,
01 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 27/2202Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (30 Sep) and minor storm to major storm levels
on day three (01 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day one (29 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Sep a 01 Oct
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Sep 135 Previsto 29 Sep-01 Oct 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 28 Sep 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/008-014/020-038/060
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Sep a 01 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 50% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 45% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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