Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 septiembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 273 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/1622Z from Region 3112 (N20E76). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct,
03 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 30/0556Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 30/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/0745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (01 Oct), active to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Sep 137 Previsto 01 Oct-03 Oct 140/140/135 Media de 90 Días 30 Sep 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 032/050-028/038-019/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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